Blogosphere PA Projections Cast More Doubt On Traditional Polling
by Kevin Yordy April 22, 2008
There appears to be more uncertainty than usual in the mainstream media regarding the Pennsylvania pre-primary polling. Pundits are pointing to the ambiguity that comes with the 300,000 newly registered voters. The old “cell phone” argument is making a comeback, too.
So a lot of doubt is being cast on the poll numbers, specifically that Clinton will be able to maintain her significant lead. Our survey of the political blogosphere will only serve to cast further doubt on traditional polling methods. Real Clear Politics, which averages all the traditional polls, is giving Clinton a 6 point lead.
Our data shows that it will be much closer: Clinton 51%, Obama 49%. So close in fact, that I wouldn’t be surprised that when the results come in, those numbers could be flipped. Using our traditional methodology, Obama is ahead in the Pennsylvania-based blogs, but the national average allows Clinton to pull slightly ahead.
Many within her own party are calling for Ms Clinton to step down if her margin of victory is close, so a 2% win would be a pyrrhic victory at best. This should become very interesting indeed.
